Stock Market Forecast For The Next Six Months: After Big Gains In Tech Stocks, Eye These Caution Signs

Posted by G. Alessandro on August 8, 2023 at 4:22pm

After a decent, though uneven, run for stocks since January, the stock market forecast for the next six months remains mildly bullish. Big gains in tech stocks, from cloud computing and generative AI giant Microsoft (MSFT) and enterprise database software turnaround play Oracle (ORCL) to Palantir Technologies (PLTR), a favorite among individual investors that went public less than three years ago, have excited investors.

Judging by the past two months of action in the stock market, indeed it appears the animal spirits have returned. Gains accelerated in the past three months, especially so across the broader market in both June and July.

With the month of July now in the books, the S&P 500 gained another 3.1%, the Nasdaq composite 4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average of blue chip names nearly 3.4%. This follows sharp rises in the 4% to 6% range in June.

August, however, has shown a little rough sledding.

Through Tuesday's close, the 500 has fallen almost 2% for the month so far. The large-cap benchmark looks poised to halt a five-month winning streak. The Nasdaq composite is down 3.2% for the month, the Dow industrials off less than 0.7%.

Beyond top tech stocks, strong moves by consumer growth companies, such as Amphastar Pharmaceuticals (AMPH) (maker of both proprietary and generic medicines that as of July 27 ranked in the top 10 of the IBD 50), transportation innovator Uber (UBER) (giving back a portion of its three-month 55% vault following solid Q2 results) and midcap cosmetics marketer ELF Beauty (ELF) — up as much as 260% from a July 2022 breakout past a cup with handle and a 33.44 buy point — have added quality leadership to the market.

The Wall Of Worry: Still Being Built?

But the sanguine outlook could darken quickly if investor expectations for corporate earnings, interest rates and stability of the banking industry take a turn for the worse.

In fact, the week ended July 7 saw both stocks and U.S. Treasury bonds fall together in price. With expectations of a new quarter-point rise in the fed funds rate by the Federal Reserve this past week right on target, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond jumped to as high as 4.09% on July 7.

The benchmark 10-year yield has since plunged to as low as 3.73% on July 19. Three months ago, it squatted near 3.25%. On Tuesday, yield on 10-year notes eased back to 4.02% after falling at one point to 3.98%.

On July 26, the Federal Reserve ended the brief pause in its monetary tightening campaign with a quarter-point rise in the fed funds rate. The move lifted the target range of overnight loans to large banks to 5.25%-5.5% — the highest level since March 2001.

And the risks don't end at U.S. borders. A diplomatic or military event, such as an escalation of the Ukraine-Russia war, could chill investors' mood.

IBD Big Picture: Will Palantir Technologies Form This Rare Chart Pattern?

Stock Market Forecast For S&P 500 At Year's End

The Federal Reserve is likely not done raising the cost of money to tame inflation. So, interest rates may remain top of mind for investors. Even after recent encouraging data showing inflation cooled further in May, Wall Street still eyes the possibility the U.S. central bank could raise short-term interest rates by at least 25 basis points later in the year.

Nonetheless, market veterans see a touch of gains in stock prices ahead.

The S&P 500 finished strong during the final week of June, rising nearly 2.4%. It more than recouped the prior week's 1.4% decline. At 4450, the large-cap benchmark etched its highest weekly close since the week ended April 8, 2022.

Last week, the 500 added another 1% and reached 4607. It hit levels not seen since April 2022.

Earlier in June, the S&P 500 had already barreled past many Wall Street firms' forecasts that it would hit 4200 to 4300 by year's end.

Veteran market observer and economic forecaster BCA Research, in an early-June report titled "So Far, So Good On The Road To 4500," feels "vindicated" that the large-cap stock index at one point pulled to within 2% of its 2023 year-end forecast. But its optimism for the second half of the year? Clearly bridled.

Credit: https://www.investors.com/

U.S. to reverse Trump's 'draconian' immigration policies, Biden tells Mexican president

Posted by G. Alessandro on January 23, 2021 at 4:50pm

By Reuters Staff

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States plans to reverse the Trump administration’s “draconian” immigration approach while working on policies addressing the causes of migration, President Joe Biden told his Mexican counterpart, the White House said on Saturday.

In a Friday call with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Biden outlined his plan to create new legal pathways for immigration and improve the process for people requesting asylum, according to an account of the call released by the White House.

Priorities include “reversing the previous administration’s draconian immigration policies,” the White House said.

The two leaders agreed to work together towards reducing “irregular migration,” the White House release said.

In a Friday call with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Biden outlined his plan to create new legal pathways for immigration and improve the process for people requesting asylum, according to an account of the call released by the White House.

Priorities include “reversing the previous administration’s draconian immigration policies,” the White House said.

The two leaders agreed to work together towards reducing “irregular migration,” the White House release said.

Mexico has a major role to play in Biden’s plans for immigration reform. Earlier this month, Mexico helped coordinate efforts in Central America to contain a large caravan of migrants heading for the United States.

Mexico’s Foreign Ministry also said it had begun talks with Washington about a COVID-19-related order signed by Biden to establish firmer health protocols for people entering U.S. territory.

The call was “pleasant and respectful,” López Obrador said in a brief Twitter post.

“Everything indicates relations will be good and for the benefit of our people and nations,” López Obrador said.

Nevertheless, Biden’s inauguration comes at a time of simmering tension over a now-dropped U.S. investigation into former Mexican defense minister Salvador Cienfuegos.

Cracking down on both legal and illegal immigration was a core focus of Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump.

Biden, meanwhile, has made an early push for a bill that would open a path for citizenship for the roughly 11 million people living in the United States illegally, though even his allies in Congress acknowledge that may be “a Herculean task.”

Reporting by Reuters.com staff

Visit Reportorio Espanol in NYC

Posted by G. Alessandro on November 29, 2016 at 4:49pm

Buy a ticket to see a performance at Reportorio Espanol in New York City.

I really enjoyed their latest play, La Cancion. I highly recommend Reportorio Espanol.

http://repertorio.nyc/#/performances

LA CANCIÃ�N, THE MUSICAL

LA CANCIÓN, THE MUSICAL

Culturadar Find

“La canción” is the humorous and refreshing story of Rafa, a young man from The Bronx with a passion for music. One night, Rafa dreams of a song he has never heard before and when he awakens he inexplicably knows the lyrics to the song. Captivated by the song and with the desire to adapt it to urban music, Rafa embarks on a quest to find its author, but in his search unexpectedly discovers the truth about his origins.

In this new musical, Rafa tells his story through an amalgam of musical genres from Rap to tropical tunes like Salsa, Merengue and Bachata.

NY Times Neediest Cases

Posted by G. Alessandro on November 29, 2016 at 4:44pm

Ny Times Neediest Cases.

Please read this article and donate.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/17/nyregion/neediest-cases-car-accident.html

A Car Accident Throws a Productive Life Into Turmoil

The Neediest Cases

By JOHN OTIS NOV. 16, 2016

David Nublett, 57, who uses a wheelchair, a walker and a cane to get around, in his fourth-floor walk-up apartment in the Bronx. Ángel Franco/The New York Times

Fresh from a promising meeting with a real estate agent, David Nublett was on his way to treat himself to a new pair of shoes when he started to walk across Westchester Avenue in the Bronx.

That is the last thing he remembers.

Mr. Nublett later woke up in a state of delirium at a hospital. Tubes were inside him. A doctor was snapping his left shoulder back into joint; another told him if they did not perform emergency surgery to remove his spleen, he could die.

“You wake up and they’re ready to cut you open,” Mr. Nublett recalled, his voice strained. “It’s like ‘The Twilight Zone.’”

He was struck by a car that morning in February 2012. He spent the next two months at Jacobi Medical Center in the Bronx. Years later, after multiple surgeries, Mr. Nublett, 57, still has five pins in his shoulder, a metal plate in his ribs and a shattered left knee. He struggles to walk. He has developed high blood pressure, diabetes and severe anxiety.

“I shouldn’t be here,” Mr. Nublett said, an anguished refrain he often repeated.

Before the accident, Mr. Nublett worked two jobs, in maintenance and in security. He was self-sufficient and frugal. Now he cannot work at all. Mr. Nublett said the driver’s liability insurance covered his medical bills, but left him with no compensation to make up for what has become years of lost wages.

The catastrophe not only stripped him of his mobility and independence, but also decimated his life savings.

“I have to start all over again, like a baby,” he said.

His monthly income consists of $987 a month in Social Security disability, enough to cover the rent for his Bronx apartment. He also receives $194 in food stamps. Desperation compelled him to beg strangers for help.

“You feel less than a man when you do this,” he said. “When you ask people for change, you feel less than a man.”

After falling $3,589.40 behind in rent, he turned to Catholic Charities of the Archdiocese of New York, one of the eight organizations supported by The New York Times’s Neediest Cases Fund. Catholic Charities worked with other groups to cover his arrears. They used $347 in Neediest Cases money to buy Mr. Nublett a kitchen table, chairs, a dresser and a medicine cabinet to help him organize and thrive in his apartment, which he can rarely leave.

Mr. Nublett, who uses a wheelchair, a walker and a cane to get around, lives in a fourth-floor walk-up apartment. Venturing outside is an exhausting, painstaking process. He does so only to see doctors or physical therapists.

“I got to sit here and watch TV all day with a pillow behind my head like some old dude,” he said.

Catholic Charities has applied for a rent-increase exemption and is trying to secure him a ground-floor apartment in his building.

Mr. Nublett’s physical ailments keep him inside, which only worsens the psychological pain of confinement, he said. He has few ways to keep from dwelling on his misfortune and the inequity of having his life change so radically. Conventional forms of escapism do nothing for him.

“Music soothes the savage beast or whatever,” Mr. Nublett said. “But when you listen, you just think about what you’re going through.”

Friends have fallen away, visiting much less and looking at him with pity when they do, he said. No family members live in New York State. Other close family members are deceased. His neighbors are friendly, he said, but have not helped him navigate his new life. His only consistent companion is his home health care aide.

The medication Mr. Nublett sometimes takes for his anxiety makes him drowsy. He has grown accustomed to that state of consciousness at times, mentally drifting away and pondering the unanswerable question, “Why me?”

“The only bad things I did was curse, and we all do that when the game comes on,” Mr. Nublett said.

He has always followed rules and adhered to a rigid code of right and wrong, taught to him by his mother and his faith. But now, Mr. Nublett struggles to understand the feeling of being inexplicably punished.

“I shouldn’t be here,” he said. “What about the bad guys that walk around the streets? There are guys out there who are worse. These guys are still walking the streets, they’re still walking.”

Additional surgeries are pending, including for a replacement for his left knee. Mr. Nublett is praying that he will be able to get back on his feet at long last.

“I want to go back outside again and cross the street,” Mr. Nublett said. “I want to catch a train again, sit down and have a bite to eat. Go to work like everybody else.”

That is where he should be, he said. Not taking pills, receiving injections and fending off panic attacks. Not fighting loneliness and despair, as he spends every day on the couch.

He should not be here.

Article on Shuddle

Posted by G. Alessandro on April 15, 2016 at 2:18am

Re-post of article:

Shuddle, Uber for kids startup, runs out of gas

Marco della Cava, USA TODAY7:36 p.m. EDT April 14, 2016

(Photo: Martin E. Klimek, USA TODAY)

SAN FRANCISCO — The on-demand business model is getting more demanding.

That's certainly the experience of Shuddle, an Uber-for-kids startup that Thursday announced it would be shutting down after failing to raise another round of funding. In a note to customers, company officials said they had "worked hard to find the financial resources that would allow us to continue to grow, but ultimately could not raise the funding required to continue." April 15 is the last day of operations.

Shuddle, founded in 2014 by former Sidecar co-founder Nick Allen, had raised $12 million, which it had hoped to use to expand outside the Bay Area. Instead, it served to keep the company alive. Shuddle targeted busy parents who were willing to pay fares that were slightly higher than Uber and Lyft for access to drivers who had passed a rigorous company screening that valued childcare experience. The vast majority of its drivers were women.

The segmentation of the ride-hailing market has exploded since Uber stormed onto the scene. Los Angeles-based HopSkipDrive is playing in the same space as Shuddle and has raised $14 million to date. Lift Hero focuses on older riders, while Zum offers baby sitting services in addition to rides for children.

USA TODAY

'Uber for kids' Shuddle trips on Calif. child care rules

It remains unclear how these other ride companies' business models will thrive where Shuddle's did not, and generally speaking the fund-raising climate in Silicon Valley has gotten noticeably tighter in 2016 as investors want to see returns on their capital. In fact, Sidecar — Allen's alma mater — also shuttered its ride-hailing service last year.

"This may seem like a sudden change, but the complexity of our operation made it difficult to try to wind down gradually," Shuddle CEO Doug Aley said in a statement. Among the list of company accomplishments, he cited a staff of 32, providing 65,000 rides around the Bay Area, and growing the business 50% in the past six months.

But "as we all have seen in today’s headlines, it is an extremely challenging environment for raising new capital," Aley wrote. "We worked hard with our existing investors to find new financial resources that would help us continue to grow. But, we could not raise the funding required to continue operations."

Tax Tips for Gig Contractors

Posted by G. Alessandro on April 12, 2016 at 2:13am

What should new contractors do starting now to be better off next year?

A: The biggest thing you can do to start next year off on the right foot is to get organized, start properly documenting all your expenses and keep clean records. There are multiple ways to do this — for example, you could:

Save all your receipts in a fire-safe box, or scan them into a file on your computer.
Write down the purpose of your business trip or expense on the receipt.
Take pictures to bolster documentation — this is especially relevant if you want to claim your home office space next year.
Be specific — include dates, names and places — you won’t remember these a year from now, so make it simple by capturing everything while it’s still fresh in your mind.
Use an accounting software like Intuit’s QuickBooks Self-Employed so you can automatically track and organize your deductions and easily and accurately export your information to your schedule C in TurboTax at tax time. There’s no need to know tax laws or forms.
Use QuickBooks Self-Employed and TurboTax do figure out your quarterly estimated taxes if you think you will owe more than $1,000.

Welcome to VAMOS

Posted by G. Alessandro on December 14, 2015 at 3:16pm

Welcome to your new site. This is a sample blog post.

Note: this page contains paid content.

Vamos Blog!

All Posts (7)

Stock Market Forecast For The Next Six Months: After Big Gains In Tech Stocks, Eye These Caution Signs

The Wall Of Worry: Still Being Built?

Stock Market Forecast For S&P 500 At Year's End

U.S. to reverse Trump's 'draconian' immigration policies, Biden tells Mexican president

Visit Reportorio Espanol in NYC

http://repertorio.nyc/#/performances

LA CANCIÓN, THE MUSICAL

NY Times Neediest Cases

A Car Accident Throws a Productive Life Into Turmoil

Article on Shuddle

Re-post of article:

Shuddle, Uber for kids startup, runs out of gas

Tax Tips for Gig Contractors

Welcome to VAMOS

Note: this page contains paid content.